Global Hospitality Investment Insights – Spring 2024
With IHIF (Berlin), Caribbean Hotel and Resort Investment Summit (Florida) and Future Hospitality Investment Summit (Saudi Arabia) all taking place in April, it presents an opportune time to delve into the current state of hospitality investment, spotlighting the investment landscape across the UK, Europe, and the Middle East, while referencing global patterns that offer insights into the future of hospitality.
Recovery and Reorientation: A Global Snapshot
The hotel industry has continued to show remarkable resilience in the face of adversity. According to the Global Hotel Investment Outlook 2024 by JLL, by the end of 2023, global Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) not only recovered but in some regions exceeded 2019’s figures, showcasing an industry on the rebound.
This resurgence is underpinned by a burgeoning interest in urban markets such as London, New York, and Tokyo, which are now prime targets for hotel investors. However, the narrative varies by region, with the Middle East and Europe leading the charge, with Asia Pacific trailing slightly, as it grapples with slower recovery rates.
The JLL article also reveals that while RevPAR recovered, global hotel investment volume was significantly low in 2023, marking the lowest total since 2012 (excluding the COVID-19 impacted 2020). This decline was attributed to capital market dislocation caused by high-interest rates and geopolitical instability.
Despite these challenges, the year witnessed a large number of global trades, indicating a continued interest in the hotel sector. However, there was a notable shift towards smaller, single-asset trades and a decline in high-dollar portfolio transactions.
Chinese Market: The Awaited Return
A critical element in the global travel and hospitality puzzle is the return of Chinese international travellers. Pre-pandemic, this demographic was a powerhouse of spending and mobility.
However, as Hospitality Investor reports, despite the lifting of travel bans, Chinese international seat capacity in early 2024 remained 30% lower than 2019 levels. The expected revival of Chinese outbound travel could catalyse significant shifts, particularly in markets heavily reliant on this segment but there remain significant challenges. The UK, with a strong influx of students and their families returning, has done well but, the overall picture for Europe is less impressive. War in mainland Europe and the diversion of direct flights over Russia alongside and reprioritisation of the economic landscape at home has led to a slower recovery in the long-haul sector with gateway cities in the US and Asia the primary benefactors in the recovery so far.
Luxury and Beyond
While the luxury market has performed better than any other segment post-pandemic, this is now facing a potential slowdown. Hospitality Investor writes that significant brands like Burberry are signalling a downturn due to decreased spending by aspirational shoppers. While this trend, coupled with a general market correction following years of growth, poses challenges for luxury goods, the impact on the luxury travel and accommodation sector remains nuanced. The travel industry may still find resilience through a shift in consumer preferences towards meaningful luxury experiences over goods.
The luxury travel market is expected to continue growing, driven by unique, personalised experiences that cater to high-net-worth individuals. The evolving luxury landscape suggests polarised spending towards high-value and luxury experiences, with an ongoing demand for unique and immersive travel experiences despite broader market challenges.
Furthermore, the narrative extends beyond mere accommodation to embrace sustainability, wellness, and authenticity, elements now integral to brand differentiation and investment appeal. The evolving expectations of travellers are reshaping the essence of hotel branding, with a marked shift towards experiences aligned with personal values.
Market Movements: Europe and the Middle East in Focus
Europe presents a mixed bag; the allure remains strong for domestic and international travellers alike, buoyed by events such as the Summer Olympics and Taylor Swift’s Mega Tour. However, the shadow of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties looms large, affecting travel dynamics, particularly from key markets like the aforementioned China.
The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, has emerged as a beacon of growth and investment, catalysed by major initiatives to boost tourism and hospitality as part of broader economic diversification efforts. This region’s upward trajectory offers a compelling narrative for investors, but the ongoing conflict in Gaza has started to impact revenues and the longer-term impact is hard to predict. Bloomberg recently reported that Dubai based Emaar Properties PJSC posted a 33% drop in fourth-quarter revenue despite a record annual profit in 2023. The conflict has also led to wider regional effects, including consumer boycotts of major foreign brands and a decline in tourism in nearby countries.
Looking Ahead
The global hotel industry, particularly in strategic markets like the UK, Europe, and the Middle East, is at a pivotal juncture, shaped by the slow yet steady return of Chinese travellers, the polarisation between luxury and value and the increasing emphasis on sustainability and experiential luxury. Together with the unpredictable global geopolitical landscape, there are significant opportunities for hospitality investors.
While the landscape is fraught with uncertainties, the undercurrents of recovery, innovation, and a renewed focus on quality and sustainability signal a new era for hotel investment. The industry’s ability to adapt, innovate, and cater to the evolving preferences of global travellers will define the success of investments in the coming years.
This month, we will be attending the Caribbean Hotel and Resort Investment Summit in Florida and the Future Hospitality Investment Summit in Saudi Arabia. These conferences serve as critical platforms for industry stakeholders to converge, share insights, and forge the path ahead. We remain committed to providing our clients with nuanced, forward-looking advice, grounded in a deep understanding of global trends.
If you are attending the Caribbean Hotel and Resort Investment Summit in Florida and would like to set up a chat, please contact Dan Akhtar or Andrea Shaw.
If you are heading to Saudi Arabia for the Future Hospitality Investment Summit, Guy Lean will be our representative. Please contact him to set up a chat.
Dan Akhtar, Managing Director – HPG Advisory Services
+44 208 600 1166 / +44 7808 157796
dan@hpgsearch.com
Guy Lean, Managing Director – Madison Mayfair
+44 20 8 600 1180 / +44 7813 009787
guylean@madisonmayfair.com
Andrea Shaw, Director – FM Recruitment
+44 20 8 600 1160 / +44 7714 236469
andreashaw@fmrecruitment.co.uk
