UK Hotel Investment Reaches New Peaks: A Mid-Year 2024 Analysis

The UK hotel investment market has seen a significant resurgence in the first half of 2024, with Knight Frank reporting that investment volumes reached an impressive £3 billion between January and the end of June. This marks a substantial increase from the £990 million recorded in the same period in 2023 and exceeds the total investment for the whole of last year, which stood at £2 billion. This remarkable growth can be attributed to several key portfolio transactions and the continued interest of international investors, particularly from the United States. 

Major Transactions Driving Growth
The first half of 2024 witnessed some landmark deals that have driven the overall investment volume. Notable transactions include Blackstone’s acquisition of the Village Leisure portfolio for £850 million, Starwood Capital Group’s purchase of 10 Radisson Edwardian Hotels in London for £800 million, and Landsec’s sale of its hotel portfolio to Ares Management for £400 million. These significant portfolio transactions highlight the increasing attractiveness of the UK hotel market to major investors. 

In total, portfolio transactions accounted for 76% of the total transaction volume, a significant rise from 53% in H1 2019. This shift can be partly attributed to the scarcity of high-quality single asset hotels available for sale, which has led to a 19% year-on-year decline in the number of single asset transactions and a 34% decline in transaction volume. 

Focus on London
London continues to be the epicentre of hotel investment activity, attracting around 70% of the total investment in the first half of the year. This focus on the capital is largely driven by overseas investors, who accounted for acquisitions totalling £1.3 billion, with US investors alone representing 77% of the overall investment activity. The city’s enduring appeal as a global financial, political, and cultural centre ensures steady demand and makes it a resilient market through challenging economic conditions. 

However, with Edinburgh once again being given the top spot in Colliers’ UK Hotels Market Index, London has some very strong competition. Edinburgh’s strong performance in Average Rate, Occupancy and RevPAR has helped it secure this position and will serve to further highlight its appeal to further hotel investment. With high land prices and relatively limited RevPAR growth London has slipped down Colliers’ list, while cities like Belfast, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow have risen, giving investors further options in the competitive UK market. 

Market Outlook for H2 2024
The outlook for the second half of 2024 remains optimistic. According to Knight Frank, the momentum for investment in the UK hotel sector is expected to continue building, supported by a diverse pool of well-capitalised investors. The anticipated reduction in interest rates is also likely to enhance investor confidence and drive further activity in the market. Stakeholders are increasingly pressuring owners to bring assets to the market at realistic and deliverable levels, which should facilitate successful and timely sales. 

Henry Jackson, partner and head of hotel agency at Knight Frank, stated, “The direction of travel for the sector is positive, and the volume of portfolio transactions is evidence that the sector remains attractive. An increase in the quality and the number of hotels seeking to transact is expected, as hotel owners who have extended their investment cycles now seek to realise their exit strategies”. This sentiment is echoed across the industry, with a strong pipeline of hotels currently in legal stages, suggesting sustained investment momentum. 

Development Pipeline
The UK is also leading Europe in terms of new hotel developments, with the highest number of new projects in the pipeline by the end of the first quarter of 2024. According to Lodging Econometrics, there are 321 projects (45,257 rooms) under development, with London having the highest pipeline by project count in Europe, featuring 80 projects (14,987 rooms). This robust development pipeline indicates a healthy future supply of new hotels, further boosting the attractiveness of the UK market to investors. 

Challenges and Opportunities
While the overall investment landscape is positive, the market is not without its challenges. The lack of quality single asset hotels for sale has been a notable issue, impacting transaction volumes and leading to a greater reliance on portfolio transactions. Additionally, the increased cost of debt and uncertainty around interest rate stability have put many deals on hold, as seen in 2023 when investment volumes hit their lowest in a decade. 

However, the prospect of interest rate cuts is expected to support deal volumes as the year progresses, narrowing the bid-ask gap and aligning buyer and seller expectations more closely. This is crucial for facilitating transactions and driving market activity. 

Conclusion
The first half of 2024 has marked a significant recovery and growth period for the UK hotel investment market, driven by major portfolio transactions and strong international investor interest, particularly from the United States. With London continuing to attract the majority of investment and a robust development pipeline in place, the outlook for the second half of the year is promising. Despite some challenges, such as the scarcity of quality single asset hotels and the high cost of debt, the overall direction for the sector remains positive. As interest rates are expected to decline, further enhancing investor confidence, the UK hotel market is well-positioned for sustained growth and activity in the coming months. 

Insights from International Hospitality Investment Forum (IHIF) 2024

The International Hospitality Investment Forum (IHIF) 2024 took place in Berlin in mid April 2024. Like many recent articles, insights and data we have seen recently, the increasingly positive results in terms of sector growth continue to be treated with caution as investors seek to secure long-term value. 

Here we look at the current UK investment landscape and highlight some of the key themes from IHIF such as expansion strategies, the future of hotel operations and what they mean to the global investment infrastructure. 

UK Investment and Market Dynamics
The UK hotel market has seen a robust recovery, with investments soaring to £1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2024—marking the highest level since 2019 and a 138% increase from the first quarter of 2023. 

In this article from Hotels, David Eisen cites recent data from Cushman and Wakefield to say “London accounted for 60% of major deals by volume and included the sale of Atlas House to Integrity International Group and the BT Tower to U.S.-based hotel owner and operator MCR Hotels” These deals highlight a growing trend of converting non-hotel assets into hotels, a strategy expected to continue shaping the market. 

The transaction volume in this quarter spanned 93 properties across the UK, encompassing around 7,600 rooms. Major portfolio deals like the Edwardian UK Radisson Hotel Portfolio and the LXi REIT Travelodge Portfolio made up 60% of the transaction volume. Private buyers dominated the market, responsible for 69% of the transactions, followed by public investors and institutional-backed capital. 

Ed Fitch, head of hospitality UK & Ireland at Cushman & Wakefield, commented on the sustained high performance of the UK hotel sector, which is stabilising as the new norm. Despite a strong capital interest, the market faces constraints due to a limited number of available properties and cautious buyer sentiment ahead of expected base rate cuts and the upcoming UK election. 

Strategic Expansion 
Speaking at IHIF in Berlin, Sir Rocco Forte outlined his group’s strategy to leverage its strong U.S. customer base, where 40% of its business originates, and explore high-demand locations like New York, Los Angeles, Beverly Hills, and Miami, despite high entry costs. The investment from PIF, which acquired a 49% stake in the hotel group, is poised to double the size of Rocco Forte’s portfolio within five years, including launching The Carlton Hotel in Milan and a new venture with fashion company Capri Group in Naples by 2027. 

Sir Rocco highlighted the group’s commitment to maintaining high service standards in the face of rising costs and continuing to manage food and beverage operations in-house to ensure quality. He also emphasised the importance of enhancing employee remuneration and working conditions, reflecting on COVID-19 as a catalyst for improving employee welfare and aligning hotel operations closely with local cultures. 

Regional Opportunities
On Day 2 of IHIF, hotel executives highlighted increasing investments and travel interest in Mediterranean destinations, contrasting with the economic challenges in northern Europe such as Germany.  

Hotel News Now reported that that Tim Abram of Starwood Capital acknowledges the difficulties in Germany due to a sluggish economy and high interest rates but reiterated the country’s strong investment potential. 

On the other side of the coin, Italy is being seen as an emerging hotspot for hotel investments, similar to Spain a decade ago. Marcello Cicalò of Bluserena Hotels & Resorts noted Italy’s fragmented market and rising asset values are attracting significant private equity interest. Andreea Bodea of Pygmalion Capital noted that while Italy can boast the highest room count in Italy, many owners are still struggling to attract the investment their properties need in order to meet and exceed the expectations of the modern traveller. 

Operational Insights and Future Prospects
The forum highlighted the critical need for operational efficiency and adapting to evolving consumer expectations. The changing landscape of hotel food and beverage services was a focal point, emphasising innovation and operational optimisation to boost profitability. Sébastien Bazin of Accor shared insights from the company’s decade-long transformation, emphasising the importance of digital integration and stable leadership amidst a volatile geopolitical landscape. “Navigating new challenges requires a robust blend of innovation and tradition,” Bazin remarked during his session. 

Customer Loyalty and Guest Experience
Hospitality Investor reported on a fascinating panel discussion that once again highlighted the evolving concept of loyalty in the hospitality sector. The discussion, featuring insights from Antonio Gonzalez, CEO of Sunset Hospitality Group, and Gregory Lanter, a senior executive at Club Med, emphasised the shift from traditional transactional loyalty to a more emotionally driven model.  

Gonzalez elaborated on the importance of experiential hospitality that withstands changes in pricing strategies or market trends. By launching Sunset Hotels & Resorts, his group aims to expand its portfolio significantly by 2026 while focusing on crafting unique experiences that resonate on a personal level with guests. 

Lanter shared similar sentiments, pointing out that the real value lies in providing life-enriching human experiences beyond the standard offerings of rooms and amenities. He stressed that the key to achieving this is through employees who possess strong interpersonal skills rather than just technical capabilities, enabling them to engage with guests meaningfully. 

Both leaders highlighted the role of technology in enhancing guest experiences. Gonzalez discussed how technology could leverage data to better predict customer preferences and streamline experiences, making them more seamless and personalised.  

Meanwhile, Lanter viewed AI as a disruptive tool that can revolutionise how guest services are delivered, particularly in tailoring the marketing and distribution of these personalised experiences. 

Market Optimism Amidst Challenges
Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the forum radiated a general optimism about the hospitality market’s future. The European M&A outlook appears promising, reflecting improvements in deal structures and an increase in strategic investments. However, the forum also acknowledged challenges such as rising costs, interest rates, the current geo-political instability and the necessity for flexible business models to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. 

In conclusion, IHIF 2024 offered invaluable perspectives on the continued resilience and adaptability of the hospitality industry, highlighting the sector’s commitment to growth and innovation. The discussions reflect the industry’s concerted efforts to navigate a complex global landscape while pursuing expansion and refinement. 

 

 

Hospitality Investment Trends

Last year, HPG Advisory Services looked at the Global Hotel Investment Landscape as international travel was beginning to re-emerge after Covid-19. We explored some of the key considerations for investors and owners and looked at which geographic regions and styles of properties were most likely to see an immediate uplift post-pandemic.  

Since then, consumer confidence towards travel has increased, and as restrictions are being lifted in numerous countries, and many hospitality businesses are reporting a promising return to growth.  

Here, we review the emerging trends and what opportunities the hospitality sector presents in the future. Whilst we’ve taken various insights into consideration, we must acknowledge the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine which continues to threaten stability throughout Europe and events there could quickly shift any current trends in unpredictable directions. 

What happened in 2021? 

Firstly, let’s recap on some of the hotel investment highlights from 2021. The Caterer has reported that hotel investment in the UK grew by 84% on 2020 levels and at £4.14 billion, was just shy of the 15-year average. Private equity was particularly interested in regional hotel investment which was particularly buoyant, and it was clear that international investors still see great value in the UK market with investments relatively split between investment from within and from outside the UK. 

The hotel sector has had a resilient year with strong momentum in the final quarter showcasing the appetite for UK hotel assets. While there remains operational challenges in the short-term, investors continue to be positive on the long-term outlook of the sector and we anticipate another strong year in 2022 for the UK hotel investment market.” – Tim Stoyle, Head of UK Hotels at Savills. 

Investor trust also returned to Spain as the €3.19 billion (as noted by Christie & Co.) where investments exceeded pre-pandemic figures. 2020 had seen a strong pull away from urban hotel investment, a trend reinforced by one of HPG’s clients that completed two transactions in the Iberian Peninsula during the pandemic. 

Continuing Trends into 2022 

Recruitment and Retention   

One of the biggest challenges in hospitality, since the start of the pandemic and closure of so many businesses, has been recruiting and retaining employees. Furlough, redundancies and the continuing effects of Brexit forced many front-line employees to either join new industries or return to their home countries, precipitating a perfect storm for the decline in available talent in the hospitality industry.  

As with every challenge, there is an opportunity and any hospitality organisation that can make their business more attractive in what is currently a candidate-driven marketplace will have a huge advantage. Working from home, digital nomads, flexible working and reimagined office space all became the norm during the pandemic. New working trends are condensing the space between business and leisure and the portmanteau Bleisure has re-emerged.  

 Hospitality, especially at the luxury end, has always given employees an insight into a luxury lifestyle and the opportunity to travel or live abroad. Company benefits that replicate this can still be very appealing to potential candidates while also giving them a valuable insight into customer expectations and a road to building empathy and genuine connections with the guests they take care of.  

Hospitality’s Digital Transformation 

Investors will be keeping a keen eye on the increased digital transformation of hospitality service and how they may be able to leverage these digital innovations to drive customer experiences, revenues and return on investment.  

The pandemic was a catalyst for the hospitality industry to accelerate processes for everything from contactless payments to online ordering and mobile hotel check-in. The expectations of digital-savvy customers are very high, but the concept of creating completely new digital experiences to complement the more traditional in-person experiences doesn’t seem quite as far away as it did two years ago. While taking on too much could harm the existing customer experience, successfully integrating innovative, creative and exciting digital experiences could be very tempting to investors, eager to catch the next big wave of this transformation. 

ESG and Property Investment 

We recently explored how the Environmental, Social and Governance strategy of businesses is a key consideration for potential employees when choosing a new organisation to work for. Unsurprisingly, ESG is now playing a large part in how property investors are thinking about their investments. Since property is usually a longer-term investment, ensuring that all new buildings have sustainable credentials and retro-fitting existing buildings with environmentally friendly features will help future-proof their investment. 

ESG Investment Funds are also increasingly popular and have rewarded investors with solid returns over the last few years. Larger Hospitality chains, who form part of these funds are often keen to ensure that the hospitality operations are aligned to the expectations of these funds manager and investors. As a result, the role of Hotel Asset Management has become increasingly popular as owners look to listen to the market in order to protect their assets and drive growth.  

General Investor Trends 

The recent 2022 Knight Frank Wealth Report looked at investment trends for popular luxury items such as art, whisky, classic cars, diamonds, wine and watches. While these investors had different experiences through the pandemic, they all seem to be predicting some sort of future that embraces digital transformations with Cryptocurrency, NFTs and the Metaverse featuring heavily. Many investors appear to be dipping their toes into this area so as to not be left behind, but the majority seem to have little understanding of how this digital future might actually play out. In many ways, the future is unwritten and it will be the innovators that best capture their moment that will ultimately succeed.  

HPG Advisory Services have exceptional industry relationships and proven successes with operators, developers and investors in the hotel, and hospitality sectors across Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Caribbean. Our services include executive search, human capital architecture, talent management consultancy, behavioural profiling and a range of human capital services tailored to meet the specific challenges of each of our clients.   

We are proud to have delivered some of the industry’s most talented leaders into key appointments. If you’re looking to build, strengthen or diversify a role, a team or your entire business, please contact us today.  

Dan Akhtar, Managing Director of HPG Advisory Services +44 20 8600 1166 / +44 7808 157796 / dan@hpgsearch.com 

Briefing: The measured approach to decision making

According to a report by CIMA; ‘72% of organisations admit to at least one strategic initiative failing in the last three years as a result of flaws in their decision making process.’

It is said that we make 35,000 decisions a day. In a fast evolving business day, we need to have enough confidence in our information and processes to make decisions quickly. In the longer term, important strategic changes need to be considered and implemented carefully, as our experts discuss in these videos:

Our industry is changing fast, in hospitality, time sensitive data can now be used to update strategies on the fly. But investing in the technology to do this is in and of itself a big decision to make and even a good idea can be badly actioned.

The report ‘Joining the dots: decision making for a new era’ from CIMA (Chartered Institute of Management Accountants) surveyed board-level executives at large organisations. In the survey, 80% of respondents said flawed information has been used to make strategic decisions.

Technology and data, when set up carefully, can be the competitive advantage that makes a significant difference to your business. With so much data coming through it is important it is systemized and ordered well but 36% of executives say their organisation is not coping with information overload. There is debate over how useful ‘big data’ is, with 37% saying it has helped and 32% saying it has made things worse.

Another factor in good decision making, identified by the report, is communication. 43% said their level of trust in fellow executives needed improvement and 57% said more active collaboration was required.

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Briefing: Are alternatives now mainstream?

Osprey Equity Partners recently agreed to fund an £80m development of a GoNative aparthotel in East London. They are backed by LJ Partnership.

Alternative accommodation types like aparthotels and hostels are becoming increasingly attractive to investors. More in-depth data from historic transactions and long established properties in the sector, have given investors greater insight on which to base their decisions. This is slowly bringing more products into the mainstream, as our industry experts discuss in these videos:

A report by WATG released last year showed that one attractive element of aparthotels is the cost effectiveness to build. It states that on a site with an £17.5m acquisition cost, a 4 star hotel would take £28.2m to construct and a 4 star aparthotel only £27.2m. It also states that terminal value on the aparthotel would be £93.1m and only £82.3m on the hotel, where both have an exit yield of 5%.

Another difference between hotels and aparthotels highlighted by WATG is that, in an aparthotel, rooms division accounts for some 93% of revenues, whereas hotels take a large portion of revenue from F&B and other areas.

Finally, WATG’s report showed GOP margins of 63% and 49% for the respective aparthotel and hotel.

When completed the GoNative aparthotel will be a 21 storey property. GoNative will manage the property under a hotel management agreement.

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Briefing: A surge in hotel investment

2015 has been a great year for hotel investment so far. There has been renewed positivity in the market and a rise in portfolio transactions. According to JLL, the UK has led transactions in the EMEA, with deals up 172% in the first half of 2015 compared to 2014. Overall in the EMEA region half year transaction volumes are up 85%. The US has also seen a rise in investment with transaction volume nearly doubling in the first half of 2015.

In this briefing industry insiders discuss the state of hotel investment, and who is investing in what:

JLL have reported that significant amounts of investments into the EMEA region has come from China and North America. Chinese investment has amounted to $1.9 billion so far this year.  Investment from North American private equity funds, which has reached $1.1 billion, has accounted for 57% of regional UK portfolio deals.

International investment into America amounted to $6.6 billion in the first half of 2015 representing nearly 30% of deal volume and showing a marked increase on 2014.

Some portfolio moves this year have included Accor’s restructuring of HotelInvest’s assets, which has involved the sale of 29 hotels in Germany and the Netherlands under a €234 million sales & Franchise back agreement in April, and the sale of seven hotels in the UK and Ireland for €38 million in May.

In June, Ashford Trust announced its intention to sell a 23 select-service hotel portfolio. And last month Pinnacle Hotel Management (PHM) sold a 15-hotel, select-service portfolio comprised of Marriott- and Hilton-branded hotels for $203 million to the Blackstone Group.

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Video clips produced by yBC for the Hospitality Channel, including interview from industry conferences such as the IHIF conference as well as specific Hospitality Channel shoots.

Briefing: Serviced apartment sector is mature and growing

A new report from Travel Intelligence Network (TIN) shows that there has been a 14% growth in the serviced apartment supply chain globally since last year. The report, commissioned by The Apartment Service, found that there are almost 750,000 serviced apartments worldwide. It shows that serviced apartments are increasingly used by businesses for project work. And, like the rest of the hospitality industry, this sector has not gone unaffected by changes in distribution with 75% of operators receiving bookings from OTAs.

As serviced apartments gain prominence in the hospitality industry, four experts discuss the unique benefits and challenges of business and investment in the sector:

According to The Apartment Service: ‘The report highlights that the serviced apartment industry has reached a level of maturity that is showing future growth of supply.’ Deals are being done across the industry. At the end of 2014 there were approximately 1.700 units in the development pipeline in London according to the UK Serviced Apartment Report – Q4 2014 by Savills. There is also strong industry growth in Scotland with RevPAA up 16.2% year on year.

A recent merger between SACO and Oaktree Capital Management, announced on the 2nd March 2015, has resulted in the formation of a £60m hospitality company. The combined company has an inventory of 1645 apartments and is launching a new brand – Beyonder ApartHotels, which will focus on millennial travellers and will open its first ApartHotel in December 2015.

Frasers Hospitality announced the development of a new property in Hamburg recently (20th March 2015) which is the 50th city the company has entered.

Dublin based serviced apartment company StayCity has 1000 apartments across Europe and is due to open properties in Birmingham, Lyon and London in 2015.

And an industry leader BridgeStreet Global Hospitality, which rebranded last year, is going strong with 50,000 apartments in 60 countries and a collection of awards.

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Briefing: hospitality a key driver of economic growth

The value that hospitality creates for all economies across the world is sometimes overlooked by the global governments. This is exacerbated by the hotel industry being historically very poor at coming together in one-voice and explaining eloquently how significant a thriving hotel market can be to an area, region or even country.

In this briefing we hear from key experts about the consequences of a thriving hospitality industry and what the sector could be doing more of to push governments to recognise it as a stable hedge against economic instability. Including comment from:

  • Paul Slattery, Director of Otus & Co. Advisory on the next 10 years being crucial for global governments
  • Gaël Le Lay, Head of Hotel Investment for AXA Real Estate on the hotels sector growth being correlated with economic development
  • Robert Gaymer-Jones, CEO of Sofitel Luxury Hotels on pushing governments further to encourage tourism
  • Marc Socker, Senior Director – Hotel Fund Management of Invesco Real Estate on what he wishes David Cameron, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, would do for the industry

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Briefing: an appetite for investment in the Middle East

With the world’s eye currently focused on specific parts of the Middle East, it is important to also focus on the huge opportunity open to hospitality and other industries throughout areas of the Middle East. This broader market is one of huge growth and potential for all sorts of hotel product and the pipeline for new developments is massive.

Understanding where the opportunities lie is important, and whether demand is continuing to outstrip supply in some of the most prolific hospitality markets including Saudi Arabia and Dubai is discussed by our leading experts in this briefing. Including video clips from:

  • Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director of STR Global on the incredible pipeline in the Middle East
  • Bob Loewen, COO of Wyndham Hotel Group on bringing their brands to the Middle East
  • Christopher Knable, COO of Katara Hospitality on the opportunity the World Cup brings for hospitality
  • And Darroch Crawford, Managing Director of Premier Inn Hotels LLC on the market demands in Dubai
 


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Briefing: ingredients for deal making

Many components of what makes a great deal in hospitality haven’t changed in many, many years, however, there is an a continual evolvement of how deals can be struck and what is need to get that agreement over the final few hurdles.

Understanding the risk and what to consider when investing in new areas is key and many believe the emphasis towards long-term contracts is very real with investors wanting to ensure steady returns rather than immediate gain.

Experts discussing deal-making this week include:

  • David Thomson, COO of JA Resorts & Hotels on the importance of a partnership
  • Christian Mole, Executive Director – Transaction Advisory Services of Ernst & Young LLP on the long-term trend
  • Rob Seabrook, Head of Hotel Transactions for Savills on the need for good cash flow
  • And Gaël Le Lay of Head of Hotel Investment, AXA Real Estate on what they look for in a good deal
 


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